Association of Professional Futurists

Most Significant Futures Works (MSFW)

Current MSFW Nominations

Nominations for 2018 Most Significant Futures Works for works completed from 2016 to 2018 are now open. “How to nominate” and the rules for nominations can be found here.

Works are nominated in three categories: Category 1 Advance the methodology and practice of foresight and futures studies; Category 2 Analyze a significant future issue; and Category 3 Illuminate the future through literary or artistic works.

A new 2018 jury will be selected. Many thanks to the 2017 MSFW judges: Nur Anisah Abdullah, Liz Alexander, Josh Calder, Bob Frame, David Hamon, Robin Jourdan, Jim Lee, Michael Lee, Tricia Lustig, Oliver Markley, Sam Miller, Guillermina Baena Paz, Gabriele Rizzo, and John A. Sweeney.

Winners for 2017 were announced at the APF Annual Gathering in Seattle on Friday evening, July 28, 2017.

If you have any questions, please contact Andy Hines, MSFW Chair. Nominated works will be listed here.

2018 Nominations

Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis, René Rohrbeck & Menes Etingue Kumd, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Available online 2 January 2018 [article] Category 1: Advance the methodology and practice of foresight and futures studies; Nominating member: Andy Hines

I have followed and admired the work of Rene Rohrbeck and his various collaborators in developing and applying metrics to foresight work inside corporations. This latest work might be considered something of a capstone, as he treats us to the results of a seven-year longitudinal study measuring the impact of “future preparedness” and its impact on firm performance. He defines future preparedness in three process steps:

Perceiving: : Practices that Firm use to identify the factors that drive environmental change;

Prospecting: Practices through which firms engage in sense-making and strategizing; and

Probing, an experimental phase with a mandate to act, i.e. venturing or prototyping

They used these categories to assess firm performances and developed a segmentation involving: Vigilant, Neurotic, Vulnerable, and in danger. Cutting to the chase, they found that firms with a vigilant level of preparedness, based on advanced corporate foresight maturity practices, had a 33% higher profitability and a 200% higher market capitalization growth when compared with the sample average. The authors do the field a great service in sharing the approach and results of this ground-breaking study.

The State of the Future 19.0; Jerome Glenn, Elizabeth Florescu, and The Millennium Project Team; book and on-line collective intelligence resource (GFIS) [link]; Category 2: Analyze a significant future issue Nominating member:  Sam Miller.

Updated in 2017, this most recent edition of the State of the Future serves as a go-to resource for exploring for change and opportunity across society’s major emerging challenges.  Using both quantitative and qualitative assessments, the GFIS provides a rich resource for foresight practitioners and other researchers seeking up-to-date collective intelligence on important issues, forces, and challenges.  A great blend of summarized infographics and in-depth analysis provide a useful resource for the foresight community.