By Seth Harrell and Jeremy Wilken
On September 22-23, 2024, the United Nations hosted the Summit of the Future, which was an event aimed at “bringing world leaders together to forge a new international consensus on how we deliver a better present and safeguard the future.” The event also included two Action Days (Sept. 20-21) that focused on the Youth Generations and Digital Rights declarations.
The Summit was the culmination of years of negotiations on a document titled the Pact For the Future. The Pact is complemented by two additional documents, a Global Digital Compact focused on bridging the digital divide and a Declaration on Future Generations focused on commitments for current and future youth generations. The assembly adopted by consensus the Pact for the Future.
Most of the interactive dialogues were not actually a chance to hear engaging conversations between stakeholders but instead a rapid succession of pre-scripted statements from member states. It was largely a one-way presentation of thoughts and ideas but given that most speakers had 3-7 minutes to speak (depending on the session) the amount of detail was limited.
Our presence at the summit was initiated by the APF chair Tanja Schindler, and supported by the executive committee, who believed it was important for the APF to be witness to this “once in a generation” gathering as it was advertised. Jeremy and I do not represent the broad cultural and geographic diversity of even the APF board, but this was entirely due to availability and resources as the APF was only guaranteed entry for two representatives and there were very quick registration deadlines to meet.
Several people described the pact as a reaffirmation of the sustainable development goals that most of the world has struggled to make progress towards. It is a commitment to not give up on a better future even though the SDGs have largely been defined by a lack of effectiveness and lack of achievement since their adoption in 2015.
Being onsite during the event provided a glimpse at many different perspectives and goals from various attendees, organizations, and world leaders. For all of the artfully crafted pre-prepared talking points by summit speakers, some of the better comments came in the form of spontaneous off the cuff remarks by both presenters and audience members that seemed to capture some essence of the summit, even without intention.
THE WORLD NEEDS CHANGE
“That’s not good!” - Virtual Future Tech Assistant
These are not words you want to hear as someone looks into the future, but when Seth took a turn using the “virtual future viewer” set up in the UN lobby, he gazed into the world of 2050 but could only see a giant window that said error! The tech assistant then took a look and uttered the sentence above.
It might be obvious, but it was very clearly stated by most speakers that change was needed. The types and direction of change were varied, but I do not recall hearing anyone stating that we are well positioned for the future without change. This is important to recognize because as professional futurists we tend to see the obvious need and role of change when others do not. The question is not that we need change, but what is the shape and intensity of that change?
The Pact declares this need, stating, “We are at a time of profound global transformation…If we do not change course, we risk tipping into a future of persistent crisis and breakdown.”
It outlines a sense of hope and opportunity that follows, focusing on the role of multilateralism through the UN, and also acknowledges the need for change to the UN system itself. Some panelists were proposing even more extensive reforms to the UN, including a consideration for rewriting the charter.
FORESIGHT PLAYS A HUGE ROLE, BUT WHAT IS IT?
“This Pact For the Future will take foresight out of the margins and make it popular and accepted.” - comment from an audience member
The entire foresight community should be able to walk with new confidence because our profession has been endorsed at the highest level of governance. The Pact mentions strategic foresight six times and has an explicit commitment for its use in short- and long-term planning. In some of the interactive dialogues, foresight was explicitly mentioned by government leaders as a necessary practice.
A side event at the UN Summit for the Future: Author Kim Stanley Robinson reading from his book, The Ministry for the Future.
A key challenge that arises here is that there are many styles of foresight and every project has different needs. Many speakers emphasized that there will be a need for collaboration across the private and public sectors. The promotion of standardized practices could increase the ability to leverage foresight as a common language between public, private, and governmental organizations which presents an opportunity.
Although foresight was placed at the center of the Pact, it was not made clear to all summit attendees (from 1,200 organizations from around the world) that the word, “foresight,” refers to a set of activities and processes, a verb. A majority of attendees had no foresight background and no real understanding that this word represented anything more than a simple innate ability to anticipate the future, a singular noun. We should be looking for, and finding, more opportunities for speaking and teaching engagements with any organization connected with or follows the UN and takes part in addressing the SDGs.
SOLID FOUNDATIONS PROVIDED BY NEW INFRASTRUCTURES ARE NEEDED
“Every collaboration needs a solid foundation to start with.” - Eugenio Amato, presenter
“We can’t build a future for future generations on top of infrastructure built for the past.” - Sheela Patel, presenter
Eugenio’s remark was overheard as he slid a table into place for an official partnership document to be signed as the finale to a side event at the Flanders House on the 38th floor of the New York Times building. These themes of foundations and the dynamics of infrastructure were often discussed all four days of the summit.
One of the biggest roadblocks to achievement of the SDGs is that the architecture for this kind of deep investment into long-term sustainability has still not yet been built. New architecture of all kinds is needed, such as novel financing models to allow governments to secure significant funding to make these investments, and a framework for new types of performance indicators that monitor longer-term outcomes that can also satisfy the needs of the business world operating on much shorter time horizons.
People may be skeptical of the ability for the Pact to really change behaviors. It is a collaboration of monumental scale that is going to need the most solid of foundations, and in the words of another panelist, “what the UN brings to the table, IS the table.” The question remains, will the UN’s table be enough? Is its own infrastructure built for the past? Will the Pact lead to the development and utilization of infrastructure for enabling multilateralism to drive the change we seek?
REGIONALISM AND LOCALISM WILL LIKELY LEAD THE WAY
“Wales is a very small country, with a very big idea.” - Nsah Mala, panelist
The accomplishments and methods of the Wales Future Generations team were featured heavily at many of the official and unofficial summit side events as Wales now requires all government bodies to be accountable for the long-term future.
Smaller countries, regions, and communities have an ability to build consensus and take action toward the SDGs when national politics get in the way. Reaching people on a local level gives them a voice and empowers them to make decisions in their day-to-day lives where they can witness and feel the change.
It was also pointed out that data used for tracking indicators for the SDGs are gathered at a local level. While the achievements of other countries were also highlighted, the professional foresight community should look to the actionable foresight successes and roadblocks of Wales for guidance.
WHAT THE SUMMIT MEANS TO PROFESSIONAL FUTURISTS AND THEIR CLIENTS
For futurists, we think the UN Summit of the Future means much broader acceptance, and more opportunities in smaller areas for futures work, such as speaking and teaching. One panelist leveraging the power of youth as a tool for change, which could also be a good strategy for greater foresight adoption. Seth offers the following anecdote:
“Three years ago, I lost out on a community grant opportunity in which I proposed using foresight tools for a project that was to align the efforts of disparate non-profit organizations to make better progress towards the UN’s SDGs in our local area, in Springfield, Missouri. While I was confident that the methods I proposed would best serve the purpose of the grant, the decision makers were completely unfamiliar with foresight and did not want to risk their reputations on a process they had only then just heard about for the first time. But today I can return to these same decision makers with the full support of the UN behind me to once again advocate for the use of foresight methods. But this time they will know that it is not only a safe choice to protect their reputation, it is a directive by the UN.”
For clients, we think the summit will mean new architectures for change are coming…but slowly. Regional progress towards SDGs may increasingly affect operations for national and multinational companies. Youth will be empowered to make more political decisions.
Overall, the Summit of the Future offered an opportunity to set a course, but in many ways the Pact for the Future was just the first hurdle. Implementation is always challenging, and as professional futurists we have the ability to play a crucial role in helping the private and public sectors align to the new direction set by the UN.
A final takeaway: Please take the time to watch some of the great content that we had the pleasure to witness as most of the onsite events are available to stream on the UN website. We leave you with the following quote that was actually a humorous comment referring to audience interaction as a session was nearing its end but seemed to summarize the purpose of the Summit of the Future perfectly.
“The questions are getting bigger and bigger, and the time is getting smaller and smaller.” - Ulrik Verstergaard Knudsen, Deputy Secretary-General (OECD)
Seth Harrell is a Missouri-based freelance consultant practicing under the name Imagine Foresight. He is a former APF Emerging Fellow and currently serves on the board as Treasurer and Director of North American Affairs. His primary research areas include the future of food, affective foresight, and scenario indicator methods. He earned an M.S. degree in foresight from the University of Houston.
Jeremy Wilken is an academically trained futurist and seasoned engineering leader focusing on how to shape positive futures with technology. He serves on the APF Board of Directors. He holds an M.S. degree in Foresight from the accredited University of Houston program. He has authored two books, spoken globally at events, run podcasts, and is recognized by Google as a Developer Expert. He lives with his family in Austin Texas.
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