By Elena Krafft
Future and Innovation – two buzzwords that people in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are more than familiar with. They have become omnipresent, driving conversations in government meetings, corporate boardrooms, educational institutions, and the public space.
But how has a country with a capitalist economy that only 50 years ago was based primarily on fishing and pearl diving, positioned itself as one of the world’s most forward-thinking nations?
Over the last decade, the UAE has worked intensively to position itself as the region’s leading innovation hub. Nowadays, Dubai is often quoted by international media(1) as the city of the future. This reputation was enabled by visionary leadership, state-of-the-art connectivity, and a growing global talent pool, along with rigorous centralized policymaking.
UAE’s Evolution: From Digital Transformation to Innovation and Foresight
The UAE’s foresight journey began with the visionary leadership of the country’s founding father, the late Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan Al Nahyan. Under Sheikh Zayed and his successors, the UAE launched its eGovernment in 2000, and other initiatives that enabled the local public and private sectors to operate within the new digital landscape.
However, to stay at the forefront of digital transformation and becoming a leading player in the global digital economy, the UAE realized the importance of boosting innovation across the Emirates. Starting in 2014, with the launch of the Mohammed bin Rashid Center for Innovation, the government increasingly focused on the institutionalization of innovation. The center has a clear vision: to be among the most innovative governments in the world(2). The year 2015 was officially declared the ‘Year of Innovation’, following which, various initiatives were launched, including the National Innovation Strategy.
Soon after, the focus on innovation alone proved insufficient. Foresight gained significant attention. In 2016, the Ministry of Cabinet Affairs and the Future was established, and the UAE Future Strategy was introduced, followed by the launch of the ambitious UAE Vision 2071 in 2017, a long-term plan designed to prepare the UAE for the next 50 years. The government began integrating foresight into the foundation of its public sector strategies.
Foresight Today
To facilitate the foresight agenda, institutions like the Dubai Future Foundation (DFF) play a key role. The DFF acts as a catalyst for innovation and foresight, driving various initiatives to boost Dubai’s economy, including an AED 1 Billion venture fund(3) aiming to support locally-focused VCs and startups and the creation of the ‘Dubai Future District’, offering numerous services for individuals and companies(4). One of DFF’s most popular initiatives, the annual Dubai Future Forum at the Museum of the Future, attracted 2 million visitors in its first two years(5). Now entering its third year, the forum gathers foresight specialists and futurists from all over the world to share knowledge, network and collaborate.
Public Sector: Foresight in Practice
Despite all these major initiatives, and the omnipresence of future and foresight concepts, the practice on-site often looks different.
Some public entities, such as Dubai Police, have established successful in-house foresight centers and most entities have initial foresight initiatives. However, these efforts do not always result in actionable outputs. It can be partially attributed to the fact that engagement in foresight activities is not always stemming from an intrinsic motivation and deep conviction in the benefits of foresight activities by an organization. Instead, it is, along with other capabilities, mandated and measured through the Government Excellence Model (GEM) issued by the Prime Minister’s Office. The model, initially introduced in 2019 and updated to GEM 2.1 in 2024(6), is based on three pillars: Vision Realization, Distinctive Value, and Enablers. Each pillar includes a set of criteria, with one criterion under Vision Realization being Future Readiness, which lists Future Foresight and Scenarios as key principles.
Larger government entities often have dedicated teams working full-time on foresight. These teams are mostly well-equipped with the necessary tools and expertise to conduct thorough analyses and develop strategic plans that align with the UAE’s long-term goals.
Smaller entities, on the other hand, regularly lack the resources to maintain full-time foresight teams. To fulfill the mandated foresight metrics, they often instead rely on external consultants.
Other entities leverage cross-departmental collaboration and form foresight teams composed of internal champions. These teams frequently face challenges in translating foresight into actionable initiatives due to gaps in capabilities, experience, and intrinsic long-term commitment. From a governance and organization structure perspective, foresight is often not a standalone department, but embedded within innovation, strategy, or IT departments.
Consequently, many public entities have yet to bridge the gap between theoretical foresight exercises and practical tools for achieving long-term objectives. While they may meet the KPIs evaluated through GEM, they struggle to ensure that foresight remains consistently integrated into decision-making processes.
Private Sector: Recognizing the Value of Foresight
In the private sector, the utilization of foresight is recognized for its tangible impact on future competitiveness and growth. Global companies like Shell, Mercedes, and McDonald’s have long understood that to survive and thrive, they need to think long-term and engage not only in regular forecasting but also foresight. However, in the UAE, the private sector’s role in foresight is still emerging. While there is initial recognition of its importance, the region lacks significant R&D activities. Most products are developed elsewhere, while the UAE primarily serves as a market for sales. With emerging plans for establishing tax incentives for SMEs undertaking R&D activities(7), companies should seize the opportunity and invest in developing their employees’ foresight and innovation capabilities.
The UAE has embarked on a remarkable journey towards building a future-proof nation, making significant strides in integrating foresight into its public sector strategies. Now with the structural foundation in place, the focus in the coming years must shift towards transforming the buzzword into a tangible reality, transforming the current ‘future thinking’ into ‘future doing’. Recognizing foresight efforts as powerful tools for long-term success and sustainability will be crucial to gain buy-in from all stakeholders.
Footnotes:
(2) https://andp.unescwa.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/UAE%20Government%20Innovation%20Framework.pdf, p.
(5) Government of Dubai Media Office, https://mediaoffice.ae/en/news/2024/February/21-02/M
Elena Krafft is a Foresight and Innovation Manager with extensive experience across the Middle East, Latin America, and Europe. Currently based in Dubai, UAE, she has led and contributed to numerous foresight and innovation projects, both in-house and as a consultant for client engagements and thought leadership initiatives. Her primary aspiration is to create measurable and sustainable impact through innovation and strategic foresight, particularly in the fields of education and social development. She is also dedicated to expanding her research on the influence of cultures and languages in foresight practices.
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