Can the potential of Africa become unlocked by 2050?

by Sarah Skidmore

Sarah Skidmore, a member of our Emerging Fellows program culminates her blog posts on the future of Africa by taking a long view. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members. As we reflect on the past 50 years of African history, we see stories of surviving – from wars to famines to diseases and everything in between. But we also see stories of rising – from entrepreneurial ventures to humanitarian efforts and more. And, as we look to the next thirty years, we can envision stories of thriving – stories of developing human talent and preparing for disruptive climate change. This continued evolution from surviving to rising to thriving can be one of the essential perspectives allowing Africa to unlock its potential by 2050. When thinking of the next three decades there are two key drivers of change to consider. In the year 2050, Africa is expected to account for 25% of the global population. 25% of the global human talent is expected to reside in Africa, noting the critical need to ensure equitable systems of development, training, and empowerment exist for the people. All the while, the continent will face disruptive climate change that may lead to the displacement of millions of individuals and potentially exacerbating the extreme poverty that already exists throughout the continent today.

Three forces of cohesion that may help Africa unlock potential by 2050 included intra-continental cooperation, local entrepreneurship, and critical infrastructure. When thinking of establishing intra-continental cooperation consider the benefit of burden-less travel in between major Africa cities, readily available African manufactured goods throughout the continent, and even conflict prevention strategies that may reframe historical areas of conflict and violence. Expanding local entrepreneurship affords a bottom-up approach to transforming markets and economies, allow additional employment opportunities, and help overcome generational cycles of poverty that exists. Creating critical infrastructure could allow millions of Africans the ability to access energy, transportation, and the water resources fundamental to daily living. Though a conflict-free future is anything but certain for the continent by 2050. Tribalism, non-state actors, and religious contention are each potential threats to that future. As a continent representing over 3,000 tribes, shifting from cycles of civil unrest toward inclusion and inter-group trust may help efforts toward realizing a conflict-free future. Understanding the motivations and underlying actions of non-state actors such as American Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO) and Chinese State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) is critical in the next three decades. Proxy wars and power-based conflicts involving various non-state actions have the potential to perpetuate conflict. Religious contention mixed with harsh climates, food insecurity, and drought could further escalate ideologically-fueled conflicts. In contrast, there is hope for sources and influences to help bring about a conflict-free future in the coming decades. Consider the work of the African Union (AU) where African leaders together created a vision for a prosperous and peaceful Africa through the Agenda 2063. Key elements of the AU’s vision include practical plans for a high spread train and air transport systems, intra-continental trading plans, financial and economic institutions, cyber systems, and African-driven heritage and cultural projects. Additionally, the African Rising movement speaks to a bottom-up approach representing thousands of individuals and hundreds of organizations committed to growth and development for the African economy and society – including females and younger generations. In short, the question is simple, yet the answer is complex. Can the potential of Africa become unlocked by 2050? By leveraging drivers of change, forces of cohesion, and influences of hope, in the coming decades Africa may be able to unlock its potential. © Sarah Skidmore 2020