Question: What are the most critical questions that futurists should be challenging leaders with today?
By Sean Pillot de Chenecey
It’s often said that the core value of a futurist is to help clients view uncertainty from different perspectives. The results of those futures-orientated perspectives can, for example, illuminate opportunities for innovation and identify areas of risk for further consideration.
That’s why my favourite questions to ask clients are,
“What’s impacting your organisation now, what do you think may happen next?” and “Why do you think you’re right?”
If their answers demonstrate a concern about ‘being shaped by the future rather than shaping it’ then it may be time to conduct futures research.
APPLYING FORESIGHT-DRIVEN INNOVATION (FDI)
When increased levels of dynamism are desired by an organisation, a particular area of interest for me is Foresight-Driven Innovation (or ‘FDI’) which involves combining an investigation of current tensions, emerging trends and scenario planning. Each being key elements of catalytic foresight activity that can be brought to life via an innovation manifesto.
With regards to that question, the FDI course I run on behalf of the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies focuses on the nexus between foresight and innovation and is intended to be a catalyst that inspires growth, particularly for challenges requiring near and mid-term action.
It does so by showing how to take a multi-sector / cross-cultural perspective at the start of a project amidst a deliberate ‘false broadening’ of the actionable time-horizons. The process outlined by the course continues by considering future need-states, before a pattern recognition exercise aimed at joining the dots between the various issues that have been illuminated, while strictly focusing on probable and plausible scenarios.
In our volatile era, I suggest a good place to start this type of activity is to frame the public zeitgeist by using a ‘top-down’ semiotic analysis, considering issues such as the macro drivers of widely held beliefs, the Overton Window in political debate, and current forces of social change. This is combined with an outside-in focus on consumer culture, where attitudinal and behavioural research references areas such as commonly used terminology, psychological states and the identifiable behaviour of relevant target groups.
Utilising those types of research naturally helps to frame the ‘now and why’ elements, and that understanding can be given a powerful boost by interviewing relevant specialists. I’ve recently interviewed a range of social / cultural / policy experts, each of whom has espoused similar viewpoints on why we’re living in a time of ‘communal bewilderment.’ This being an issue that compounds the impact on businesses having to deal with extreme levels of uncertainty.
SEEKING GUIDANCE FROM THE PAST
The FDI approach also aims to help delegates navigate an era of confusion and disruption by noting how these can be seen as two sides of the same coin, with one side marked ‘opportunity and innovation’ while the other offers ‘uncertainty and risk.’ But before we look forwards, and to the changes it may bring, we can aim to frame our understanding by seeking guidance from the past.
Hence looking to philosophy, and considering the teachings of those such as Hegel, for whom change was an ongoing process, in the form of his belief in ‘thesis / antithesis / synthesis’. So, when those around us complain of being challenged by seemingly endless instability, we can hopefully reassure them that this is nothing new and perhaps also point to those such as Heraclitus who believed existence was lived in a state of never-ending transition.
In business terms, it seems not too great a jump to interpret their thinking as reflecting an endlessly shifting landscape. A context that involves the emergence of new ‘signs and signals’ to which leaders must pay attention and react, or choose not to react, accordingly.
In addition, one can look to Karl Popper, who advised us not to think in terms of certainties, but to consistently replenish our existing viewpoints with fresh perspectives. And with innovation being ‘something new that adds value’ then one can hopefully clearly see the connection between Popper’s advice and the possibility of new products and services being created by innovative thinkers who never cease to seek problems to solve.
Of course, to try and solve those problems, it’s crucial to understand the lived experience of the people concerned, be they seen as ‘consumers’ or ‘voters’ for instance. In that sense, we could do well to seek guidance from John Locke, a champion of empiricism and observation. His thinking could perhaps also remind us that, while we may devise an innovative new offering in the ‘unreal’ confines of a boardroom, if we ignore the actualities of everyday life, then we do so at our peril, regarding those who desire integrity and relevance.
As for gaining knowledge of the group in question, conducting ethnographic research to uncover actionable insights by observing real behaviour in a relevant context, alongside using semiotics to uncover the communication of shared meaning, are absolutely key for any research project of this type. They can deliver profound understandings in a time of deep uncertainty, when solid ground on which to base decisions may be hard to find.
Hence noting the latest Global Risks Report published by the World Economic Forum (WEF), which notes that ‘constant upheaval has become the norm and a multiplicity of futures are conceivable over the next decade.’
The WEF also note two added layers of complexity that can be thrown into the maelstrom of today. The first is ‘acceleration’ in terms of the velocity of forward change and a sense that the future is hurtling back towards us at equal speed. The second is ‘compression’ regarding those multiple changes that are happening and interacting at the same time. An overall picture memorably framed by the organisation as a ‘polycrisis’ and which links back to the original use of the term by the French complexity theorist Edgar Morin.
For many, that notion of constant upheaval can lead to a sense of despair, when strategists usually seek anything but a crisis (let alone a polycrisis) when planning for growth.
But, in the context of innovation, futurists should work with a positive mindset, while emphasising that the apparent chaos and endless change (or ‘risk and destruction’ if you prefer) of today are actually the normal state of affairs, and ones that in a business context may be seen as delivering opportunities for innovation.
Indeed, as the great economist Joseph Schumpeter said, “creative destruction is the essential fact about capitalism, the economy is in constant flux, ‘stabilised capitalism’ is a contradiction in terms and innovation (in its many forms) is the engine of growth.”
CUVA
Someone who recently delivered a fresh perspective on dealing with a lack of stability is Michael Watkins. His latest book ‘The Six Disciplines of Strategic Thinking’ explains how to approach problem-solving, make better decisions in the face of uncertainty, and thereby achieve superior results in our turbulent times.
Intriguingly, one of the things he advises is to “take the established ‘VUCA’ acronym (regarding volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity) and flip it. It then has complexity at the front, making the new acronym ‘CUVA’ as complexity is at the core of the challenges most leaders face. Understand that – and you can anticipate and make sense of key uncertainties, which will help you to respond to volatility and deal with ambiguity”.
Taking these approaches can leverage opportunities and uncertainties, and end in the creation of what every innovator desires: ‘something new that adds value.’ Essentially, innovators need to move from being reactive as a result of change, to being proactive and taking timely action before change happens. That’s why I believe in the mantra of ‘those who fail to prepare should prepare to fail.’ That is anathema for innovators, who tend to be optimists, and optimists believe in progress and a better tomorrow.
Reflecting on ideas from the past, noting those from the present and seeking to identify future opportunities and threats can lead to dynamic thinking on the appropriate strategy, tactics, and innovation to implement. Each is part of an ‘adaptive toolkit’ to drive growth and helps to clarify commercial readiness (or the lack thereof) along with the required actions to take, while identifying issues such as support requirements and financial implications.
Rather than being constricted as a siloed and ad-hoc subject, that toolkit needs to be part of a multi-faceted and ongoing process, leveraged throughout an organisation, where the suitability of current activities is constantly questioned and where an ‘always curious’ mindset is encouraged. This process sees leaders implementing cross-department engagement to ensure businesses can absorb cultural signs and signals, so that genuine adaptability and agility are enabled. All of which helps them to answer the perennial questions driving innovation: “where’s the tension and what’s the opportunity?”
Hence, researching the ‘Now / Next / Why’ and then aiming to seize the day by coming to a decision based on a deeper knowledge of opportunity and uncertainty.
Or as the business colossus Jack Welch stated so memorably, “change before you have to.”
Sean Pillot de Chenecey is a foresight/strategy/innovation consultant, who works for clients ranging from corporates to agencies to NGO’s. He’s also an Assoc Partner with the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. A public speaker, he’s given speeches at Congresses / Forums / Summits in the US/EU/MENA/Asia and has lectured at leading Universities for over 20 years. His first book 'The Post-Truth Business' went to No1 whilst his second 'Influencers & Revolutionaries' was shortlisted for the 'Business Book of the Year' awards. His podcast ‘The New Abnormal’ has 200,000+ downloads. He’s a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts. To learn more about Sean, visit www.brandpositive.org or www.seanpdec.com.
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