by Travis Kupp
Travis Kupp, a member of our Emerging Fellows program inspects the uniting impact of climate disaster on Asia in his eleventh blog post. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members. If science fiction has taught us anything, it may be that existential threats to humanity can either unite us in a common cause or tear us asunder. Attempts at coordinated global responses to the impacts of climate change, however, have so far had mixed results. It is possible that regional agreements, for example in the Asian continent, could lead to more significant actions and meaningful results including the framework for enhanced unification. On the other hand, different levels of economic development could lead to inequitable demands and distrust that cause Asia to destabilize and splinter. In either case, when disaster strikes the continent, regional players will need to decide how to move forward both together and individually. The extent to which those competing interests can be aligned will determine whether more or less unity results from a climate catastrophe. The imbalanced nature of Asia’s path toward unification could be what leads to its undoing when faced with dramatic effects of climate change. While China may continue attempting to add a benevolent spin to its international expansion, few are convinced that the country is doing much beyond securing its position of power into the future. The nation’s assumed role as an international climate leader could be used to impose unfavorable economic limitations on its less developed southern and western neighbors in the name of protectingthe environment. Russia will likely not use climate policy in this way but will continue to pursue its interests in Central and Western Asia while carefully navigating its relationship with China in those regions. As Central and Southeast Asian countries are more severely hit by extreme weather events, droughts, and rising sea levels, Chinese and Russian indifference to this plight will outweigh whatever benefits their projects afforded to these regions. In this scenario, climate disaster exposes the frailty of a seemingly unified Asia and leaves the worst affected countries looking outside the continent for aid. Alternatively, the potential for renewed Western intervention in Asia under the banner of climate salvation could force local concessions from the great powers in the region. India will experience some of the worst effects of climate change and may serve as the leader for this future given its south-central position, large economy, and cautious relationships with China and Russia. As the climate causes India’s economy to suffer, the country may look to shore up its security assurances with more trusted partners in the West. In the interest of preventing this development and the ripples it would likely have in Central and Southeast Asia, China may consider a more generous approach to its neighbors to be geopolitically expedient and Russia may do likewise. In the interest of maintaining some order as the full impacts of climate change unfold, a union could form around this new multilateral system. Such an institution would allow Asia to find a new internal equilibrium while keeping the rest of the world at bay. Even if Asian nations implement policies that attempt to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change, fully averting those outcomes appears unlikely. When the continent finds itself grappling with a disaster scenario, the inadequacies of existing regional relationships and institutions will be exposed. This may cause the continent to fracture as the self-interest of great power states is pursued without pretense. Depending on how likely external intervention appears, it may instead lead the establishment of improved regional relationships and institutions. Climate disaster is sure to complicate Asia’s complex regionalism but could end up being the catalyst for a unified Asian Century. © Travis Kupp 2020
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