by James Balzer
On 5 February 2025, the APF enjoyed hosted a compelling webinar with Brett Peppler as the guest speaker. Brett explored the evolving security landscape in the Pacific, and the important role of foresight in navigating this complex landscape. His insights underscored the urgent need for a new mindset—one that moves beyond learned helplessness to embrace strategic foresight and long-term planning in a complex world.
The challenges of Pacific island security
Brett contextualised the webinar by explaining how short-termism is a key weakness in Pacific island security. Security policy is typically designed within the lifespan of a single political administration, usually spanning just three to five years. This issue is compounded by the shifting geopolitical landscape, such as the re-election of Donald Trump, and the proliferation of Chinese influence in the region. This could potentially shift the U.S.–Pacific and China-Pacific relationships toward a more transactional model, with middle powers such as Australia, Japan and New Zealand walking a fine tight rope in navigating great power relationships in the region.
In such an unpredictable, multi-actor environment, foresight tools become essential for Pacific nations to navigate shifting alliances and external pressures effectively. Likewise, the growth of non-traditional security risks, such as climate change and economic fragility also demonstrates the important role of foresight in capturing and understanding security dynamics in the Pacific.
Chronos and kairos - key principles for better security foresight
In this complex context, Brett emphasised the need for security to move from a threat-based security posture to a risk-based security posture. A risk-based posture enables tailored security responses, creating agency for Pacific nations rather than being passive recipients of security threats. Adopting a risk-based posture also enables a proactive, instead of reactive, security culture.
As such, Brett examined how foresight supports agility and optionality, which is crucial for strategic scenario mapping. Importantly, in the Pacific, foresight can underscore the contrast between "chronos", which represents a linear, sequential perception of time, and "kairos", which focuses on seizing the right moments for action. In a region where policymaking is often constrained by short political cycles, integrating both perspectives means balancing long-term planning (chronos) with timely, strategic action (kairos) to create more agile, resilient security planning.
While surface-level change in the Pacific may appear slow, underlying dissatisfaction and unrest persist.
From hard power to soft (people) power - thinking in complex systems
A significant shift in Pacific security thinking has been the move from hard power—military and state-centric approaches—toward a more people-centered model. People-centricity prioritises systems, resilience, and well-being over hierarchy and force. This requires engagement with non-traditional security actors, such as community leaders, civil society and NGOs.
Despite these evolving security perspectives, Brett explained how narrow mandates continue to hinder the development of comprehensive security strategies centred on systems and people. Without cross-governmental collaboration, collective intelligence and holistic scenario planning, policies risk being fragmented and ineffective, and not account for black swan or grey rhino events. Brett conveyed how breaking through these constraints is essential for developing proactive, inclusive, and forward-looking security frameworks.
A particularly compelling case study from the webinar highlighted Palau’s response to the economic fallout of COVID-19. The pandemic led to an abrupt 45% decline in the nation’s GDP, exposing the deep connection between economic security and national stability, and therefore, the need for systems thinking. In response, Palau adapted its national security strategy to prioritise economic resilience, focusing on diversification and sustainability - key principles of strategic foresight. This case underscores the importance of flexible, context-specific security planning—an approach that other Pacific nations can learn from as they craft their own strategic frameworks.
Conclusion
Brett Peppler’s webinar reinforced the vital role of foresight in Pacific security planning. By moving beyond learned helplessness, integrating futures thinking, and balancing both chronos and chiros perspectives, Pacific nations can transition from reactive governance to proactive, strategic leadership. While the region faces formidable challenges—from climate change to geopolitical instability—equipping decision-makers with the right tools, approaches, and mindsets can enable the Pacific to shape a future that is not only secure but also resilient and self-determined.
However, narrow sectoral mandates continue to hinder the development of comprehensive security strategies. Without robust foresight practices, the Pacific islands could be a passive recipient of risks and impacts in a constantly complex, evolving world. Hence, foresight is a necessary security tool for the Pacific.