by Elena Krafft
In my previous blogpost -‘Building a Future-Proof Nation: The UAE’s Foresight Journey’- we have highlighted some existing differences in the way organizations approach foresight and how they demonstrate different levels of practicing it.
But what about us as individuals?
If you take a moment to think about it, you can probably name a few individuals in your immediate circle (friends and family) or in a broader context (such as politicians or business people) who seem to have an almost magical ability to foresee future events and prepare for them. Conversely, we also know those who always seem to be caught off guard by seemingly predictable events.
It appears that not everyone commands the same level of foresight or ability to anticipate future changes and needs. But how do these discrepancies develop? Is foresight a skill that we are born with, determined by our genetics? Or is it a skill that we develop through our environment, the people we interact with and the experiences we make? In other words – can we learn it? And if yes, should we?
The Interplay of Personal and Environmental Factors in Developing Foresight
The ability to apply foresight seems to be the result of a complex interplay of biological, psychological, and sociological factors. In the following, while not examining the elements from a scientific perspective, we will highlight some of them, divided into two interdependent categories:
Personal sphere
The tough news first: Genetic predisposition significantly influences an individual’s character development and skill set. Cognitive abilities such as critical thinking, logic, and memory can be inherited similarly to physical traits(1). These cognitive skills play a big role in applying foresight thinking as they help us in observing, remembering and connecting information:
Memory: To detect subtle changes that might provide clues on how something will span out in the future, a robust memory is essential. Individuals with a strong working memory may not always recognize it consciously but often describe it as a "gut instinct" or good intuition when making significant decisions. In reality, these individuals can subconsciously retrieve memories of past experiences, identify patterns and perform a rapid scenario analysis to guide their choices.(2)
Imagination and creativity: A well-developed imagination helps us visualize various future scenarios and envision ourselves in those potential futures. This creative capacity is key to exploring different possibilities and preparing for various outcomes. In order to effectively discuss and engage with these futures, it's essential to bring people into a future context. A valuable tool for achieving this is Design Fiction. Practitioners like Julian Bleecker(3) employ Design Fiction to create tangible artifacts from possible near futures, aiming to spark conversations about what lies ahead and enabling individuals to evaluate how today’s choices can shape the world of tomorrow.
Emotional Regulation: Managing our emotions when contemplating and planning for the future is crucial for maintaining objectivity. Effective emotional regulation helps us stay grounded and avoid letting strong feelings, such as anxiety, cloud our judgment and lead to increased risk aversion. In "Future Shock" (1970), Alvin Toffler highlights how the rapid pace of societal change can overwhelm individuals, amplifying feelings of uncertainty. By cultivating emotional resilience, we can navigate this complexity with clarity without becoming paralyzed by fear of the unknown, make informed decisions, and embrace change rather than succumbing to fear.
Environmental sphere
Do you typically embrace the motto of living in the moment, or do you prefer to have mapped out a solid long-term plan for your life? Your inclination is not entirely a matter of personal choice but is significantly influenced by a range of current and past external factors.
These include the society and immediate environment in which one is raised, the culture, religion, and value system imparted during upbringing, as well as the language(s) spoken. The educational level, often linked to socioeconomic status, plays a crucial role, as do all past experiences that have shaped an individual.
Here comes the good news: While we may not be able to change our inherent nature or alter past environmental influences, we can definitely nurture and develop our future-thinking abilities. By instilling a range of practices, we can learn to actively anticipate and design our personal futures while considering the impact of different scenarios. Many methodologies and frameworks, originally developed for business contexts, can also be effectively applied on a personal scale, such as Sohail Inayatullah’s Causal Layered Analysis and Bill Sharpe’s Three Horizons Framework.
Still unsure if that extra effort is all worth it?
Why Cultivating Foresight Matters for Our Everyday Life
Strong foresight capabilities offer significant advantages beyond business and government contexts. They can greatly enhance our personal lives by helping us navigate daily decisions with greater confidence and by enabling us to take calculated risks when necessary.
Often, successful people are perceived as simply lucky. However, what might appear as luck is frequently the result of effective foresight. While luck is a matter of chance and beyond our control, foresight is an active process that we can develop and direct. By practicing foresight, we can improve our ability to anticipate and prepare for future opportunities and challenges.
Unlocking the Potential to Plan for the Future
While some individuals may have a natural inclination toward planning for the future, this doesn’t mean that others cannot develop similar skills. The first step lies in recognizing the benefits and relevance of foresight. Once people understand its importance, they can cultivate this ability through deliberate practice and the use of appropriate tools and methodologies.
By embracing these strategies, anyone can enhance their capacity to anticipate and prepare for future challenges and opportunities, in a personal or business context.
When businesses are aware of it, they can offer respective trainings, not only for their foresight staff but all employees, thus turning their company into centers of excellence in foresight thinking.
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© Elena Krafft, 2024
Elena Krafft is a Foresight and Innovation Manager with extensive experience across the Middle East, Latin America, and Europe. Currently based in Dubai, UAE, she has led and contributed to numerous foresight and innovation projects, both in-house and as a consultant for client engagements and thought leadership initiatives. Her primary aspiration is to create measurable and sustainable impact through innovation and strategic foresight, particularly in the fields of education and social development. She is also dedicated to expanding her research on the influence of cultures and languages in foresight practices.
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