by Travis Kupp
Travis Kupp, a member of our Emerging Fellows program culminates his series of blog posts on Asia’s future by making a conclusion. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members. There is no shortage of speculation about whether the present century belongs to Asia. Many projected futures in the affirmative rely on a continuation of the same global economic forces that lifted the continent and especially China to prominence at the turn of the millennium. No trend, however, is destined to last forever. Asia’s future dominance depends on how it navigates myriad emerging challenges including a changing climate, demographic shifts, and intraregional tensions. Some argue that these forces will halt and potentially reverse the region’s fortune. Regardless, as nations of the world reassess their approach to globalization over the coming decades, what happens in Asia will in large part decide the future international order. Whether Asia becomes the preeminent region in that new balance of power remains open for debate, but the probabilities lean decidedly in favor of the continent. Asia’s starting position is strong. The region has historical precedent as a global economic powerhouse and has recently reestablished that position. It has the potential to realize significant gains with a large and increasingly diverse population. Asia has embraced the global norms of the developed world. While environmental degradation and extreme weather events threaten to exacerbate regional disputes and prejudices, Asia’s developing institutions may provide the necessary framework for mitigating these issues and ensuring security. Included in these institutions is Russia, whose renewed focus on the region will hedge its future against an ever-frosty Europe. A formal Union may not be established, but if some form of continental unity is honestly pursued and maintained it is likely that an Asian Century will prevail. Asian primacy, however, may be a tall order in the face of what the future appears to hold. History is littered with far more failures than successes when national resources become scarce. Asia is no exception. As these pressures mount, effective cooperation will need to overcome the rich cultural diversity across the continent that is also the fuel for longstanding prejudices. Regional redistribution of capital across state lines will likely come with onerous strings attached, as evidenced by China’s approach to global projects. The continuation of this attitude portends increased scrutiny from the international community. If China overextends or otherwise falls into turmoil, peer global powers may seize the opportunity to destabilize the region and reassert their own strength in the global political landscape. This could look oddly enough like former colonizers taking on the mantle of “liberator” to justify such an intervention. A future such as this jeopardizes the emergence of an Asian Century, at least in a peaceful fashion. The manifestation of an Asian Century in coming decades is not entirely inevitable, but it is a future for which the rest of the world must prepare. Significant headwinds are on the horizon for the continent, but most of them are not unique. Demographics are changing all over the planet. Climate change, while felt differently in every city and state, is a collective crisis. Global trade agreements are evolving but are far from driving the world economy toward national isolationism. What puts the future of Asia at risk are many of the same forces that all other global powers must also successfully confront. The most likely scenario is that Asia will adapt these challenges into opportunities for international leadership. The Asian Century that comes to fruition, therefore, will not be in spite of the coming waves of widespread, systemic change, but because of them. © Travis Kupp 2020
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