By James Balzer
How can futurists best develop scenarios in uncertain and complex contexts? How can participatory processes be effectively conducted to design different scenarios? What implications does the design method of scenarios have for long-term strategic thinking?
The APF were recently blessed with the presence of Betty Sue Flowers - a globally respected scenarios expert with a rich history of informing strategy across numerous organisations. In particular, Betty Sue shared insights on how myth and metaphor can revolutionise the way we create and communicate scenarios in strategic foresight. This included an exploration of how storytelling can reshape the futures we imagine and also the way managers and policymakers interrogate complexity, uncertainty and long-term transformation.
The Power of Myth and Metaphor in Scenario Planning
In a world of instrumentalist, quantitative, and frankly, narrow-minded, strategy development, across business and government, how can we break our bounded rationality to interrogate seemingly unlikely or even preposterous long-term scenarios?
Tackling this question in the webinar, Betty Sue promoted the power of myth and metaphor in scenario planning - breaking the bounds of our imagination to speculate beyond the constraints of our current understandings.
Betty Sue argued that scenarios are not just just stories, but rather, they are narrative frameworks that can illuminate potential futures in ways that facts and data alone cannot. By framing scenarios as myths or archetypes, strategists can distill the "flavour" of a future vision quickly and effectively, communicating it to managers and stakeholders in a way that resonates on a deeper level.
In this sense, in scenario planning, titles and themes serve as “poetic devices”, or “memes”, that encapsulate a scenario’s essence and communicate it succinctly. The clear use of metaphors and images triggers imagination, which in the busy lives of decision-makers, is paramount to think about complex scenarios in a succinct, coherent and quick manner.
Betty Sue argued this triggering of the imagination prompts leaders to think beyond linear, predictable paths, often a product of ‘bounded rationality.’
The Role of Fiction and Imagination in Business Strategy
Flowers’ background in literature and storytelling adds an interesting dimension to her approach to futures work. In the webinar, she questioned why fiction, which is so central to our lives, is often absent in business strategy and policy. Just as we rely on stories to make sense of our personal journeys, scenarios can provide a narrative structure to guide businesses and policymakers through an increasingly complex world. Fictional scenarios, even those that seem far-fetched, can be deeply meaningful as they explore possibilities beyond conventional limits.
Elaborating on this, Betty Sue explained how the goal is “stirring up emotions” as a way to foster deeper levels of imagination and critical thinking. Scenarios that tap into our emotions can be particularly effective in highlighting unlikely but highly consequential futures. Involving people emotionally can help break down the cognitive biases that prevent us from considering disruptive or improbable futures.
Setting the Stage for Creativity
However, in the busy lives of key decision makers, where do we start with promoting imagination and memes in building scenarios?
In the webinar, Flowers argued the need to develop metaphorical “stage sets” as spaces where creative exploration can flourish.
In her words, scenario planning is about “setting the table” for imagination, establishing an environment where ideas can unfold. This creative space serves as the backdrop for exploring and testing possible futures, allowing participants to engage with scenarios in a hands-on, experimental way.
However, this creative process isn’t complete without the involvement of diverse stakeholders and interest groups. Their participation adds authenticity and diversity to the scenario, grounding it in the broad perspectives and experiences of those who will be most affected by the outcomes, and not just the perspectives of the most powerful stakeholders. Flowers believes this collaborative approach enriches the “story” created within the stage set, giving it depth and relevance.
As such, Flowers critiques the way we divide the world into binaries, which she believes contributes to “otherness” and social division. Instead, she advocates for seeing issues along continuums, which encourages a more nuanced and inclusive perspective. This approach could be transformative in scenario planning, enabling planners to bridge divides and engage diverse groups in constructive dialogue about the future.
Mainstreaming Scenario Planning in Strategic Planning - Where To From Here?
Once a niche practice, scenario planning is now gaining mainstream traction. During the webinar, Flowers observed, it reflects the growing complexity and uncertainty of our world. Traditional strategic planning focused on predictable futures, but today’s planners must consider a wider array of possibilities. Flowers encourages strategists to adopt a flexible, adaptable approach that focuses not just on what is likely to happen but on what could work under a range of potential futures.
Resultantly, Flowers’ insights provide a powerful reminder of the importance of imagination, emotion, and narrative in shaping strategic foresight. As we grapple with an unpredictable world, myth, metaphor, and collective storytelling offer pathways to envisioning and preparing for futures that might otherwise seem too complex or far-fetched to consider.
We want to thank Betty Sue for her innovative insights in the webinar!
James Balzer focused on enabling civil society and governments to achieve longer-term governance practices in pursuit of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. He is interested in how futures and foresight methodologies can facilitate better ‘bottom-up’ and ‘top-down’ governance practices that can identify systemic governance dysfunctions, and overcome these dysfunctions for the long term. Specific tools he focuses on include government technology (GovTech) and entrepreneurial governance practices, often termed ‘agile governance’.
James has 3.5 years of experience in Federal and State Public Service in Australia, and 3 years of social enterprise experience across Timor-Leste, Malawi, ASEAN and Australia. He continues to advise sustainable development think tanks and acts in leading roles across various steering committees and working groups. These include leading a Global Foresight project as part of the World Economic Forum Global Shapers program and being a Next Generation Foresight Practitioner Fellow with the School of International Futures.
Comments