Question: What is the role of ethics as foresight continues to develop?
By JT Mudge
With great foresight comes great ethical responsibility.
OK, Stan Lee of Marvel Comics, may not have said it quite like that in Spider-Man’s origin story (Amazing Fantasy #15, 1962), but the phrase is nonetheless true. It echoes philosophical and moral sentiments throughout history, from Judeo-Christian and Islamic writings to French philosophers and Winston Churchill. There is a general sense in many societies that when you have power over something, you must also use great care. That is at the essence of what it means to have a code of ethics in foresight — it is a responsibility of our profession.
For the most part, spotting unethical behavior can be easy; a doctor prescribing themselves medicine, a broker dealing in insider trading, or a judge ruling on a case involving a family member. Examples of ethical violations are so common that they make good plot fodder for movies and television.
But what is ethics, and more importantly for futurists, why does it specifically matter to foresight?
WHAT ARE ETHICS?
Ethics involves a sense of right and wrong. It describes situations or acts that when put in context, create a sense of balance, fairness, and equity. It is an evaluation of our actions in a given situation. Ethics usually involves a question in the form of “should I or shouldn't I…” that requires a decision to be made.
The best way to describe what is ethical is to actually contemplate actions that are unethical. An act that is unethical is actively going against a known moral or value. This is done knowing that harm will be done to others while a benefit is done to you.
It is important to distinguish actions that are unethical from actions done without knowledge of the ethics involved (what I call a-ethical - similar to amoral). Behaving unethically requires a conscious decision or value system that guides those decisions.
Moral philosophers have come up with thought experiments to better play through different ethical dilemmas (small stories that setup a problem and then pose a question). Ethical dilemmas are a lot like futures scenarios, they generally describe hypothetical situations in order that we might explore them in a safe virtual environment and be better prepared to address them.
THE TROLLEY PROBLEM
The Trolley Problem is perhaps the most famous ethical thought experiment designed to help people think through a series of increasingly complex scenarios and to explore the implications of the decisions we make. There is not necessarily a right or wrong answer. What matters is how we go about approaching the dilemma, the questions we ask, and the things we consider.
The basic trolley problem is relatively simple. A trolley is speeding down a track and has no brakes. There is a group of people in peril stuck on the track ahead. You have some agency in the situation. You can do nothing and let the trolley hit the people, or you can flip the track switch causing the trolley to only hit and kill one person on the sidetrack. Which do you do?
The trolley problem then gets more and more complex as the parameters of the scenario change, making decisions harder. For example, what if the person on the sidetrack is a baby, or the five people are criminals, etc. In one of my favorite episodes of The Good Place, Chidi, the moral philosopher of the group, explains the dilemma in detail. (Note: I highly recommend watching the entire episode as it is one of the best and funniest in the series and this clip only shows a portion of the trolley experiment.)
In futures thinking we are presented with versions of the trolley problem all the time. When we create scenarios, visions of the future, and provide recommendations for how to influence the future, we are essentially creating a futures dilemma — what future do we choose and what do we do about it. Here is an example:
As futurists we would flesh out both of these possible scenarios, but that only makes the dilemma even more complicated. When we create scenarios and help organizations have agency on their futures, we often create ethical dilemmas. In every scenario there are winners and losers, those that will suffer and those that will prosper. As part of our great ethical responsibility as futurists, we need to call attention to these aspects and explicitly define them in our work. We need to help others make better ethical decisions by giving them the information required to properly address the dilemmas inherent in shaping futures.
CONSIDERING PREFERRED FUTURES
Organizations usually have some initial ideas of what their preferred futures might look like. As futurists, one of our roles is to help them refine their ideas, goals, and the paths to realize those futures. However, it is just as important to point out ethical decisions that may need to be made as those futures unfold. When we have enough information ahead of time and we prepare for various scenarios, we are less likely to compromise on our ethical choices.
MORALS AND VALUES
When evaluating ethics, it can be important to look at the dilemmas in terms of morals and values. Though similar, morals and values have some distinct differences, each with its own unique way of looking at a situation.
Morals
Morals are almost synonymous with ethics. They provide guidelines for what is generally considered to be right or wrong and specifically, how that makes us feel. Morals are not universal though, and morals can be tied very closely to a specific ideology or religion. This can lead to different viewpoints and judgements of others whom one group considers to be “immoral.”
We often choose to do something considered “moral” even if we do not want to. Morals are external ideals that shape our inner views — it is an outside->in force that creates our views of a preferred future. Morals are what we do even though no one is looking.
Values
Values, on the other hand, are what we generally hold close to our heart and help create our self-image. These are things we consider noble and worth doing. We want to do these things even if we do not have to. Values are inner ideals that shape our actions externally — it is an inside->out force that drives our actions. Values are what we do even though others are looking.
Values and morals influence each other. They can be in alignment with each other or create contradictions in our beliefs and actions. When we create visions of futures, we need to consider both the morals and values involved.
QUESTIONING OUR FUTURES: SIX QUESTIONS TO ASK TO BE BETTER AT ETHICS IN FORESIGHT
Asking ethical questions can place us in the right mindset to create better and more responsible futures.
Who is in the room and who is missing? Make sure to include all stakeholders and representatives of those affected by the futures work. Diversity is key to more democratized futures.
Does this colonize the future? When people adopt the images of the future visions you create, you can stifle imagination and end up colonizing certain futures. This is one reason to make sure that everyone is represented, including future generations who will inhabit the worlds you envision.
What is the source of these futures? What are the sources you use to create futures? Are you borrowing images from unfulfilled futures (flying cars anyone?) Who is driving the futures work and what is their agenda? Clients usually want to influence the futures work, but you have to be careful not to compromise on visions of the future just to please a client with an agenda.
How could this go wrong? Examine the future you are creating and ask this question. Use tools such as an implication wheel or a third-order impact analysis. Do not hold back and try to dig deep. Make sure you include the potential bad with the hopeful good.
Who are the winners and losers? Who’s preferred future is this and why? Agendas and bias will always creep in but you can help surface them so they do not remain hidden.
6. What are the moral and value considerations of the futures?
Morals: What moral norms are present? What morals are being challenged? How will changing morals affect us?
Values: What values are shifting? What values would need to be present for a particular change to happen?
WHAT’S NEXT FOR FORESIGHT AND ETHICS?
Many professions have a code of ethics (doctors, lawyers, teachers, etc.) where practitioners agree to ethical standards on how they perform their duties. Professionals are often put into situations where they have some level of power over others. Because this power can be misused, professional associations develop a clear set of guidelines to help make sure that those practicing their professions know what they should and should not do, removing gray areas and holding people accountable.
Foresight desperately needs an agreed-upon code of ethics. The power that futurists have is often underestimated, even by futurists. The power of futurists can be hard to quantify. We set cultural visions that inspire others to create preferred futures. This can range from the work of artists and science fiction writers speculating on the world years ahead of their time, to strategists recommending a particular product or campaign. As humans, we all absorb these future images and recommendations and set out on the paths to create them (or stop them). That is power.
As futurists and strategic foresight professionals, we have a responsibility to make sure that this power is used consciously and not abused. The Association of Professional Futurists (APF) has formed a committee to develop a code of ethics for foresight. Perhaps, in the near future, we might convene a summit on ethics and adopt a set of ethical standards that will help guide us as our profession grows. The world is more complicated and nuanced than it has ever been, and if we are going to shape the futures of the world, we need to do so responsibly.
With great foresight comes great ethical responsibility.
JT Mudge is a professional futurist consulting with organizations to help them anticipate change and create better futures. JT has a Master's degree in Foresight from the University of Houston where he also teaches Social Change and Change Theory. JT currently serves as a Strategic Foresight Advisor for the United Nations Development Programme.
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