By Claus Sneppen
The physical office has historically served as the cornerstone for shaping the working life of knowledge workers in post-industrial and modern societies. However, the office and working life of office workers are currently experiencing a rapid and profound structural and systemic transformation.
The pandemic has played a significant role in permanently accelerating remote working,
equivalent to almost four decades of pre-pandemic growth (Barrero, Bloom, and Davis, 2021). This rapid transformation clearly indicates that the prevailing and “old” office workplace model was to some extent disconnected from the contemporary potentials and possibilities brought about by these changes.
The traditional, purely analogue 9-5 office space has largely ceased to exist, and digital work has become the cornerstone of working life for an increasing number of individuals. In essence, for knowledge and office workers, the computer has surpassed the desk in importance. As a result, a thorough re-evaluation of the office workplace model is imperative to ensure that it aligns with the evolving needs and realities of the modern workforce and organisation.
In the past, forced behavioural changes under exceptional circumstances have often had limited or no lasting effect on subsequent behaviour (e.g. in previous publications from CIFS (Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies), we addressed the potential impact of the pandemic on the balance between online and onsite retail). Initially, we expected it to have a lasting effect, leading to a permanent acceleration and influence towards more online commerce. However, contrary to our expectations, this has not been the case, as online commerce has returned to its expected upward trend in most markets. This return to the trend may have been influenced by the current economic development with expanding uncertainty and challenges.
However, the disruption in the workplace is a completely different story. There has been a definitive and permanent shift in the balance towards more remote work for knowledge workers. Unlike the retail sector, the office workplace has experienced a fundamental and structural transformation, and remote work has emerged as a prominent and lasting feature of the new working landscape. This shift is likely to continue shaping the future of the office workplace, with remote work becoming an integral and dominant part of the working model for knowledge workers.
The physical office has historically served as the cornerstone for shaping the working life of knowledge workers in post-industrial and modern societies. However, the office and working life of office workers are currently experiencing a rapid and profound structural and systemic transformation.
The pandemic has played a significant role in permanently accelerating remote working,
equivalent to almost four decades of pre-pandemic growth (Barrero, Bloom, and Davis, 2021). This rapid transformation clearly indicates that the prevailing and “old” office workplace model was to some extent disconnected from the contemporary potentials and possibilities brought about by these changes.
The traditional, purely analogue 9-5 office space has largely ceased to exist, and digital work has become the cornerstone of working life for an increasing number of individuals. In essence, for knowledge and office workers, the computer has surpassed the desk in importance. As a result, a thorough re-evaluation of the office workplace model is imperative to ensure that it aligns with the evolving needs and realities of the modern workforce and organisation.
In the past, forced behavioural changes under exceptional circumstances have often had limited or no lasting effect on subsequent behaviour (e.g. in previous publications from CIFS (Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies), we addressed the potential impact of the pandemic on the balance between online and onsite retail). Initially, we expected it to have a lasting effect, leading to a permanent acceleration and influence towards more online commerce. However, contrary to our expectations, this has not been the case, as online commerce has returned to its expected upward trend in most markets. This return to the trend may have been influenced by the current economic development with expanding uncertainty and challenges.
However, the disruption in the workplace is a completely different story. There has been a definitive and permanent shift in the balance towards more remote work for knowledge workers. Unlike the retail sector, the office workplace has experienced a fundamental and structural transformation, and remote work has emerged as a prominent and lasting feature of the new working landscape. This shift is likely to continue shaping the future of the office workplace, with remote work becoming an integral and dominant part of the working model for knowledge workers.
Analogue or Digital (Unplugged or Plugged): Whether the workplace of the future will be predominantly analogue or digital is seen as a premise for future businesses that each individual company must conform to (although each company has the option to go against the trend, this concerns the direction of the market). Can work be done digitally or must it be solved analogously? Analogue is necessary and digital is possible. Technological development will increasingly make it possible and more value-creating to perform work digitally. At the same time, the execution of work is necessary to be carried out analogously — both objectively and based on employee behaviour.
We or Me (Heteronomous or Autonomous): Whether the individual company is built around a ‘Me-autonomous’ or ‘We-heteronomous’ approach, should it be an individual-oriented approach or a ‘we-heteronomous’ approach – e.g., an orientation around the community? This scenario dimension will inevitably be influenced by whether society is further oriented towards individualisation or not, but it is primarily an organisational choice, and therefore an active choice that needs to be clarified before the strategy for the future hybrid workplace is established. The ‘me’ and ‘we’ approach is continuously challenged in the interfaces and relationships between organisation, leadership, and individuals. What is the optimal social capital present at any given moment in an organisational to support the hybrid workplace model?
The two dimensions of the dilemmas lead to the simplistic 2x2 scenario model below, as the current interpretation of the hybrid workplace model is merely a first step towards the future design of the hybrid office environment. Development is dynamic and will mainly be defined in interaction with digital advancements and employee behaviour. By dividing the workplace into digital possibilities and analogue necessities within a temporal perspective, a clear picture emerges that the development is not static and is moving towards more remote work and flexibility.
The boundary for what is digitally possible coincides with how much less time employees
need to spend in the office, with varying degrees of time shifts. The dividing line between what is digitally possible and analogue necessary can be determined objectively based on the nature of the work, or subjectively based on the individual employee’s or leader’s preference.
As we look forward, we expect that work will increasingly become more asynchronous and symmetric regardless of format, as boundaries blur and disappear with new and more advanced technologies (e.g., AI or metaverse) and a more nonlinear approach. We are moving towards a more aligned and improved balance, taking advantage of the best of both worlds and managing the given conditions.
Consider these four scenarios:
2019 - The Office Factory: Pre-pandemic office workplaces were predominantly characterised by an in-person presence at the office. While it was digitally possible to work more remotely, workplaces primarily maintained a 9-5 linear and synchronous approach. The workplace, as the office factory, is history as we look towards the future.
2020-2022 - The Great Office Workplace Experiment: With the pandemic, the workplace for knowledge workers shifted to their homes to such an extent that even necessary analogue or most productive interactions and collaborations were moved remotely. This extreme experiment shifted awareness and highlighted the digital possibilities and analogue necessities.
Present - The Authentic Marketplace: The post-pandemic workplace has moved the distribution between remote and in-person work for knowledge workers closer to the boundary between digital possibilities and analogue necessities. The boundary for what is digitally possible has also shifted earlier, as technological advancements and adjusted user behaviour have enabled increased digital work. The office workplace is designed to be activity-based, supplemented with various “booths” and experiences to stimulate senses and collaboration.
Proximate Future - The Community Hall: In the future, the proportion of what is digitally possible is expected to increase, while the analogue necessities are predicted to decrease correspondingly. It is also expected that the proportion of remote work will increase and move closer to the boundary between analogue necessities and digital possibilities. The analogue workplace is expected to be further reduced accordingly and expandingly function as a community hall where the organisation and employees can gather intentionally by appointment and for agreed-upon events.
Far Future - The Digital Palace: Looking further into the future, a possible “what-if-scenario” outcome of the development is that the in-person workplace is reduced to a palace where employees come by appointment, becoming a place for the few and selected. A variation and extension of the digital palace could involve holding meetings at locations selected by management, including private homes and co-working spaces.
The major question is how this distribution will unfold in the future, in other words, to what extent organisations and employees have been able to translate these possibilities into behaviour and increased competitiveness. The future dividing line for employee flexibility, and thus the fundamental structure on which the hybrid workplace model is unfolded, will be determined by a pressure and balancing act between autonomy (me) and heteronomy (we) — ideally in a balance where the employee is capable of autonomously balancing it with a Pareto efficiency (e.g., the 80/20 Rule) and a holistic perspective. On one hand, employees, with an individualist approach, will make narrow, self-interested choices for their work execution but constantly evaluate them against what is best for the organisation and colleagues. Who and what will prevail in the future office workplace model?
Claus Sneppen is an Associated Partner with the Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies. Claus’ expertise contributes a sociological understanding of business to the future hybrid office workplace, drawing from his extensive management consultant experience in various fields, including experience economy, experience-based communication, workplace design, meeting design, and retail store design. Notably, he has co-authored the book, Experience-based Communication (Springer, 2008).
The (R)Evolution of the Office Workplace is expected to be published in late 2024 by Springer Nature in their Future of Business and Finance series. This new book aims to provide primary office workplace actors with a more nuanced understanding of the most significant changes in the market that have already been realised, are nearing realisation, or will drive the transformation of the office workplace towards a hybrid model. Secondly, it seeks to equip primary workplace actors with insights to anticipate and prepare for the office workplace the future by offering recommendations and strategic tools to facilitate internal processes, enabling organisations to transition towards a more sustainable and future-ready office workplace model.
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