Question: What is a culture of foresight and why is it so important as we look towards the future?
By Terry Grim
When considering important questions about the future, one of the most pressing is: Why is it important to consider a Culture of Foresight? What does it mean to have a Culture of Foresight, and why is it relevant now? How do we envision serving the future?
We all have a sense of what culture is, but the specifics can be elusive. The Ontario Government describes culture as “the lifeblood of a vibrant society, expressed in the many ways we tell our stories, celebrate, remember the past, entertain ourselves, and imagine the future.” Wikipedia defines culture as “a concept that encompasses the social behavior, institutions, and norms found in human societies, as well as the knowledge, beliefs, arts, laws, customs, capabilities, and habits of the individuals in these groups.” Edgar Schein, a leader in cultural studies, defined culture not only as how people in a group feel but more importantly how they respond and think. He went on to define three levels of culture: 1) artifacts, which are visible; 2) espoused beliefs and values, which are expressed; and 3) underlying assumptions, which are held.
Today, as we look toward the future, our current times have been described with terms like wicked, epic, and VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous), reflecting daunting and disheartening challenges. We face persistent issues such as religious and national conflicts and unequal economic distributions, while new concerns like climate change and AI emerge. Furthermore, we are recognizing the limits of many traditional responses such as democracy or capitalism.
In today's environment, we are much more connected, communicating globally with wider audiences. Statista reports that as of April 2024, there were 5.44 billion internet users worldwide, which amounted to 67.1 percent of the global population. Of this total, 5.07 billion, or 62.6 percent of the world's population, were social media users. This connectivity has fueled the speed, complexity, and diversity of change, enabling solutions, issues, and new products to emerge more rapidly and unexpectedly. From a foresight perspective, it means we are dealing with many more unknown unknowns than ever before and facing “super-sized” complexity in our systems models.
Our foresight training provides tools that help us organize information and make more proactive, informed decisions. This serves us well by allowing us to help organizations and individuals create futures that consider new opportunities and consequences. More significantly, the foresight discipline is emerging and growing into a vibrant framework and methodology for thinking about and engaging with the future. When futurists gather, they engage in rich, invigorating discussions. These discussions, whether in small or large groups, in person or online, allow for a wide and diverse range of views. They offer in-depth understanding of the topic, awareness of intended and unintended implications, and increased clarity about the questions we should be asking. The processes generate creative options and learnings for everyone, making this arguably the most valuable contribution our field has to offer the world.
A culture of foresight has been slowly integrated into many different organizations to augment their culture. Governments around the world actively support foresight in key strategic roles for planning and policy development. These include Singapore, the United Kingdom, Finland, Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, South Korea, and Sweden. Foresight culture has also been included in many commercial organizations, such as Shell, Siemens, IBM, and ASAE. Numerous foresight professionals have written about the importance of integrating foresight into organizational culture.
But, is it time to propose the radical idea that a Culture of Foresight becomes the dominant culture globally? To address the issues, problems, and opportunities we face, do we all need to use the foresight thought-framework for the wide range of decisions and activities in which all decision-makers participate? A Culture of Foresight could be a strong way to create the future that we all want.
This might not be such a radical idea. In “Deep Futures,” Dr. Jose Ramos explores using our ancestral knowledge to understand the world today. Across the globe, indigenous people have lived with the principles of making decisions that support future generations. North America had the Seven Generation Principle of the Haudenosaunee as did the Koyaanisqatsi from the Hopi Indians. New Zealand’s Māori had the concept of Kaitakitanga and the Australian Aboriginal cultures used Songlines and Dreamtime to pass down complex ecological knowledge and long-term strategies. The Ainu people of Japan called their focus on preserving ecosystems for the future Ukapirmui. Other models can be found in Europe, South America, and even the Arctic regions.
So, what would a global culture of foresight look like? What would be the vision? What are the steps to getting this started? How do we continue to mature the idea of a Culture of Foresight? The base elements of what the culture would consider are probably well known – building a culture that is proactive, adaptable, and agile, encourages innovation and experimentation, integrates diverse teams, and creates early warning systems, among other basic tenets of the foresight discipline. But as we defined culture earlier in the paper, culture is much more subtle and imperceptible. Referring back to Edgar Schein’s three layers and to our own CLA model, what are the new stories we will need to tell? What are the new beliefs we will need to have? How does our language need to change?
Kim Stanley Robinson published "Ministry of the Future" in 2020. In this science fiction or climate fiction book, the climate crisis is addressed by giving future generations as much priority as current generations, pulling together a global focus to create a sustainable world. Kim Stanley Robinson’s scenario is predicated on the tipping point of a major catastrophic heat wave in India which kills 20 million people. How do we generate the same energy and focus without such a tipping point? How do we learn from our indigenous ancestors to give importance to future generations? How do we give future generations a voice in today’s policies?
Dr. Peter Bishop is giving future generations such a voice now with his program Teach the Future, building foresight skills in our young people worldwide. Youth are also leading many of the efforts in addressing climate change. Should we use climate change to drive the broader discussion and change our culture?
Believing that a Culture of Foresight is important to the world compels those of us in the foresight field to make it a priority as well. What actions should we each be taking to mature and communicate the idea? What is APF’s role? Where do we take the message and how do we make it real? What is our vision? How do we most effectively and urgently bring our skills to a world in need?
As with most questions about the future, this thought process has generated more questions than it started with, but that is a good beginning.
Terry Grim was a founding partner with Foresight Alliance, a futures research, futures strategy, and futures education consultancy firm that works to help clients gain a clearer vision of the possible futures they face, while integrating futures and foresight thinking into their organizations. Terry’s primary expertise is in foresight methodology and using the right methodology to achieve best results to meet organizational objectives.
Terry’s prior experience includes senior positions at IBM as a member of the space program software development team, international management, and IBM Corporate Strategy. Terry has taught in the University of Houston’s Studies of the Futures Master’s degree program for 10 years.
Terry has a BS in Computer Science from the University of Florida, and an MS in Studies of the Future and MA in Industrial-Organizational Psychology, both from the University of Houston.
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