by Kimberly Daniels
Kimberly Daniels, a member of our Emerging Fellows program inspects the signals that point to the emergence of Eurasia’s Heartland by 2050 in her eleventh blog post. The views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of the APF or its other members. Uncertainties concerning the question of a world power pivot towards Eurasia’s Heartland in 2050 will ¬inevitably be resolved as the future unfolds. Tracking current geopolitical trends may inform whether and how the future might align with a continuation scenario. Monitoring leading indicators of change may suggest whether and how the future might line up with a collapse, new equilibrium, or transformation scenario. Indicators such as emerging issues, events and statistical data that illuminate geopolitical developments involving Heartland Stakeholders could reduce uncertainty and signal the future that might emerge. Monitoring emerging issues involving the geopolitical agendas of the main powers in the region could signal the direction towards which the future is moving. Among other things, the U.S.’ transition to a “Build Back Better” economy includes the U.S. rejoining the Paris Agreement for climate-change mitigation. How might a U.S. clean-energy agenda impact the U.S.’ relations with former allies and presence in Central Asia? Considering China’s renewables investments in the region and Russia’s near-term pivot to clean hydrogen production, could it provoke long-term geopolitical tensions and indicate a new equilibrium scenario? Seemingly, Russia has gained ground as an arbiter of peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Could her accomplishment of deploying Russian military to Azerbaijan escalate tensions with Turkey? Given Turkey’s agenda of gaining influence in the South Caucasus, could Russia’s win push Turkey to re-align with the West? Could this too signal a new equilibrium scenario? Presumably, China’s role in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), shift to a “dual circulation” economy, and introduction of Buddhism in Africa align with a multidimensional superpower approach. What might the RCEP — a multilateral trade agreement among 15 nations that includes Japan and Australia and excludes the U.S. and India — mean for the future of the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor? If China pursues a hegemonic strategy of civilizational expansion into Central Asia and or full domestic supply-chain capability consistent with limited imports but limitless exports, how might it impact Russia? Could a Chinese Buddhist orphanage in Malawi suggest the rise of Afro-communism, and how might it affect Africa’s culture and a united African continent? Could these emerging issues point to a collapse scenario? Monitoring the geopolitical activities of certain Heartland stakeholders for circumstances that could trigger future-shocking events may reveal signals of the emerging future. The U.S. will likely seek to rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal amid U.S. sanctions against Iran and the suspected sale of U.S. military weapons to Iran’s enemies. Russia may irrevocably lose face with China after deporting and banning Chinese nationals from Russia during the coronavirus pandemic. China and Iran are becoming closer allies in the Middle East, something a pro-Israeli U.S. and a U.S.-leaning India may see as a threat. Could these geopolitical moves underpin the launch of a multilateral nuclear attack against the U.S., a regional war between Russia and China, or World War 3? Might they be signposts of a collapse scenario? Monitoring statistical data involving Heartland stakeholders and regarding systemic future-shaping geopolitical factors could signal the future that is coming. The U.S is ranked 5th in projected GDP per-capita in 2020. However, China is expected to surpass 56 countries in per-capita income by 2025 and rank 70th in the world, while Turkmenistan may rise above 58 other countries. Could China’s economic rise bring the U.S., Russia, and India together as allies to contain her power? By 2050 four in every ten children will be born in Africa, positioning her to meet labor demands in Heartland countries faced with ageing populations. Could African migration to Eurasia impact Heartland pivot power? Might these statistical developments signal a transformation scenario? Emerging issues, events and statistical data about geopolitical developments pertaining to Eurasia’s Heartland may suggest how the future might unfold. Monitoring these leading indicators of change could reduce uncertainty about a possible world power pivot to Eurasia’s Heartland in 2050. They could signal whether the emerging future aligns with a collapse, new equilibrium, or transformation scenario. © Kimberly “Kay” Daniels 2020
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